Showing posts with label Omicron virus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Omicron virus. Show all posts

Friday 24 December 2021

The black swan event of OMICRON VIRUS and its financial market implications.

Probably no one expected that when noble Covid 19 started in China as a form of deadly pneumonia, it would explode into a worldwide pandemic. Many scientists thought that it would fade away just the way previous SARS of 2002 and 2012 had been managed as epidemics. They had uniquely underestimated a Tsunami for Small waves. History is normally bound to repeat itself if people forget the past. As the pandemic scotched the world with its deadly waves, heroes in Pharmaceutical companies intervened, Central banks activated Modern Monetary Theory of Keysian Economics, Financial institutions served hence the black swan event of 2019 to 2021 will be forever engraved in history books of the future. 

Covid 19 did really a good number on economics of countries both rich and poor. However, OMICRON COVID VIRUS is on a mission to achieve its predecessor  COVID 19 because of one rule HE WHO HESISTATES TO REACT WILL DISINTEGRATE. When the government delayed to ensure that Covid 19 was arrested earlier it exploded to a Frankenstein Monster. A monster that hit financial institutions really hard. 

This is how, previously bankers and monetarists had been fighting deflation, stock markets booms, real estates booms and other financial issues. Never have they been faced with the monster of all monsters, the king of all kings and creme de creme of nightmares called financial inflation. Inflation is every bankers nightmare due to its negative effects on value of money, transfer of wealth and loss of trust on money. Inflation also results to inflated bubbles in stock markets, CPI and real estate which acts like a rogue jinn out the kettle. 

Omicron covid virus is such a black swan event on an already ailing economy post Covid-19. How will the government that had stimulated its economy during lockdowns of 2020 rescue itself in a possible scenarios in 2022? How would MMT save economies when it has triggered inflation that surpassed previous agreed targeted of 1.5%, 2%, 5% by becoming double the targets. The USA has always kept its inflation target at 2% however post Covid-19 the inflation rate has hit records highs of 3%. The UK and EUROPEAN Union is not spared in this Inflation mayhem. TRUELY HE WHO HESISTATES TO REACT WILL DISINTEGRATE. Inflation is disintegrating economies  however in a likely situation that Omicron sweeps the countries that plunged deeply in financial instability then hope for a better future will dwindle. Inflation has been referred as Transitory by FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL however he acknowledged that it was no longer what he perceived it to be. 

When experts go back on their confident statements then you know it is the dawn of bad days. Omicron virus has started showing investors flight to safer assets and safe havens. Gold in 2020 had a swift rally to all time highs, S & P 500, NASDAQ, RUSSEL 3000 and other indices went to high prices. Recently at this article was being written, Gold has shown steady appreciation for the fear of investors. Indices are following the same formulae for Investors Risk Appetite averse habit. As macroeconomics and microeconomics aspects will be priced in by the markets, more implications are underway. 

Supply and Demand strains were seen in sectors that we never expected it would unfold in. This is a good warning that gives us a perspective on future likely state if Omicron isn't arrested earlier. The funny part with omicron is that it has been attacking those who are fully vaccinated. Which is a very unlikely scenario that Pharmaceutical companies didn't anticipate. This is really a black swan event, tough times will not seize to end however lets hope good measures are taken to spare us the doom. 

Finally, humans always find solutions to what is deadly therefore in Omicron virus fear hope for a better intervention would be found.      

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